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Thursday, October 24, 2019
Climate Change in Vietnam
HCM CITY UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY (HUTECH) FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT & BIOTECHNOLOGY HUMAN AND ENVIRONMENT CLIMATE CHANGE CONTENTS I. CLIMATE CHANGE I. 1. Greenhouse gas emission I. 2. Manifestation of climate change in Vietnam II. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND SOCIO-ECONOMY II. 1. Impacts on ecosystems II. 2. Impacts on the economy II. 2. 1. Impacts on agriculture and aquaculture II. 2. 2. Impacts on the energy sector II. 3. Impacts on other economic sectors II. 4. Impacts on society I. CLIMATE CHANGE: I. 1.Greenhouse gas emission: Greenhouse gas emission (CO2, CH4, N2O) has continuously increased globally since the industrial revolution, especially due to human’s activities including the exploitation of fossils for industrial and agricultural production and transportation. Greenhouse gas accumulated over an extended period causes a greenhouse effect, which raises the global temperature. The level of greenhouse gas per person in Vietnam is lower than the worldà ¢â‚¬â„¢s average level (Table 1. ), but Vietnam is one of the countries that is most affected by climate change. Table 1. 1. Estimated greenhouse gas emmission level per person Unit: Tons of CO2 equivalent/person | Year 2004| Year 2010| America *| 20| 21,6| Europe *| 11| 11| The world’s average *| 5| | China *| 4| | Vietnam **| 1,5| 1,6| Source: (*) Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change, 2007 (**) Estimation in Vietnam Initial National Communication – Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change, MoNRE, 2003Vietnam conducted a greenhouse gas emission inventory in 1993 (The first national inventory notice, 2004), in 1998 (Greenhouse gas emmision inventory report, 2008) and in 2000 (The second national notice, 2010). The inventory result showed that the total greenhouse gas emission in 2000 was 150. 9 million tons of eq. C O2. The emission structure has changed however compared to the previous years. The proportion of emission compared to the total figure has increased in the sectors of waste, energy and industrial processes (Diagram 1. ). Diagram 1. 1. The evolution of GHG emission of each sector in 1993,1998,2000 The inventory result in 2000 showed that agriculture was the biggest source of emission with 65 million tons of eq. CO2 (accounting for 43. 1%), which was followed by the energy sector (35%). But the agricultural emission proportion compared to the total emission reduced against the previous 2 inventories. GHG emission inventory research in sectors showed that only forestry and land use restructuring were able to absorb and reduce CO2.CO2 absorption by the forests and other kinds of land coverage was 75. 74 million tons of eq. CO2, and by soil 90. 85 million tons of eq. CO2. Totally, GHG emission from agriculture and land use restructuring was 15. 1 million tons, accounting for 10% of the t otal emission. There is much scientific evidence showing that the earth is heating up due to increasing GHG emission and global climate change is taking place rapidly and with significent impact. Thus, if GHG emission continues to increase, the impacts of climate change will be more serious.Countries, that have long coastlines and are located near the equator like Vietnam will have to face great impacts from climate change. I. 2. Manifestation of climate change in Vietnam: Climate change is taking place and causing great changes, which are shown in extreme and unusual weather phenomena experienced recently such as increasing temperature, strong storm, heavy rains, floods, drought, and rising sea level etc. Temperature: Over the last 50 years (1958-2007), the annual average temperature in Vietnam increased from between 0. – 0. 7 °C. The temperature in winter rose faster than that in summer and the temperature in the north rose faster than that in the south. In 2007, the annu al average temperature in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang were higher than the average figures in 1931 to 1940 by 0. 8 -1. 3 °C and higher than that in 1991 – 2000 by 0. 4- 0. 5 °C (Source: The National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change, MONRE, 2008). Rainfall: In each region, there was no big change in the annual average rainfall in each period and in different locations.However the annual rainfall reduced in the Northern climatic zones and increased in the Southern climatic zones. The national average rainfall over the last 50 years (1958 – 2007) reduced by 2%. However, rainfall pattern within the year changed with a negative trend: increasing in the rainy season and reducing in the dry season. Cold air: The number of cold spells that affected Vietnam reduced remarkably over the past 2 decades. However, unusual manifestation appeared more regularly.The latest one was a chilly cold spells that lasted for 30 days in January and February in 2008 in the Northern region. (Source: The National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change, MONRE, 2008). Storm: In the recent past 5 to 6 decades, the frequency of tropical cyclones on the East sea increased by 0. 4 storm per decade; the frequency of tropical cyclones affected Vietnam increased by 0. 2 storm per decade; in recent years, high intensity storms appeared more regularly. The storm’s orbit trended southward and the stormy season ended later. Many storms travelled unusually and irregularly. Source: Vietnam’s second notice to the UN Convention Frame work on Climate Change, MONRE, 2010). Sea level: Monitoring data at Marine Observatories along Vietnam’s coastline showed that the average rise in sea level was 3mm/year (from 1993 – 2008) equivalent to the world’s average rate of increase. Over the last 50 years, sea level at Hon Dau marine observatory rose by 20cm (Source: The National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change, MONRE, 2008). II. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND SOCIO-ECONOMY Climate change is one of the biggest challenges for human beings in the 21st century.Climate change will cause serious impacts on production, life and environment globally. Increasing temperature and rising sea level causing flooding together with saline water sources that negatively affects agriculture will increase industrial risks and negatively impact future socio-economic systems. II. 1. Impacts on ecosystems: Sea water rise, more high-intensity natural disasters, sediment levels and saline level increases all have impacts on natural ecosystems. Rising sea level accelerates the landslide rate in the coastal areas and river mouths.It leads to the disappearance of mangrove forest such as the mangrove forest east of the Ca Mau cape, which is the natural habitat of many species. Rising sea level also floods the coastal areas, which has an impact on the growth of mangrove trees, especially those that are able to retain si lt banks and thus raise the level of the coastal areas, such as Avicennia, Sonneratia alba. Due to the impacts of climate change, natural forest ecosystems such as the dry dipterocarp forests, verdurous forests and deciduous forests have all reduced in acreage.The boundary of primeval forests and secondary forests can also change as a result. The dry dipterocarp forests will expand to the north; deciduous forests of drought tolerant plants will grow more strongly. High temperature can also lead to the extinction of some kinds of fauna and flora. Some kinds of plants such as aloe wood, textured wood and siadora Vietnamese, etc, can become extinct. Hundreds of animal species and plants have to change their habitats and life spans to adapt to climate change. II. 2. Impacts on the economy:Climate change has sizably impacts on some economic sectors, which indirectly put pressure on the environment II. 2. 1. Impacts on agriculture and aquaculture: Rising sea water and salt water intrusion in the Mekong River Delta and some areas in the Red River Delta, which are major agricultural hubs, threatens agricultural production and national food security. Salinity of 1†° has intruded landward by 50-60 km and salinity 4†° (harmful to plants) has intruded by 30-40 km from the river mouth. Source: The Southern Institute of Water Resources Research, 2008). The Mekong River Delta, which has 1,77 million ha of saline land, accounting for 45% of the total area, would be the most affected in the country. If sea level rises 30 cm, salinity of major branches of the Mekong River Delta would intrude by a further 10km. ESTIMATED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO VIETNAM According to the climate change scenerio, if sea water rises by 1m, the Mekong river Delta will be 40% flooded land,  Red  river  Delta,  11%,  and  Ho  Chi  Minh  City,  over 20%.Nearly 10-12% ofà ‚ national population will be directly affected and the loss of Vietnam’s GDP is estimated at 10%. Source: Vietnam Insitute of Meterology Hydrometeorology and Environment, MONRE, 2010 ESTIMATED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO VIETNAM According to the climate change scenerio, if sea water rises by 1m, the Mekong river Delta will be 40% flooded land,  Red  river  Delta,  11%,  and  Ho  Chi  Minh  City,  over 20%. Nearly 10-12% of national population will be directly affected and the loss of Vietnam’s GDP is estimated at 10%. Source: Vietnam Insitute of Meterology Hydrometeorology and Environment, MONRE, 2010Increasing temperature would have impacts on productivity, increase the risk of diseases and change the plant structu re, which would cause food insecurity. Scientists have said that if the temperature increases 1 °C, it will affect 25% of productivity, such as rice at 10%, corn 5-20%, (would be 60% if the temperature rises 4 °C). The boundary of tropical plants will change toward higher mountain areas and northward. Increasing temperature affects the metabolism, growth rate, reproduction and seasonal crops of aquatic creatures, which are also prone to get diseases and be more exposed to toxic chemicals.Tropical fish (of low commercial value excluding tuna) would increase, while sub-tropical fish (high commercial value) would reduce. The oxygen content in water reduces sharply at night, which makes many kinds of shrimp and fish die or be stunted. II. 2. 2. Impacts on the energy sector: When the temperature increases, energy consumption of some production sectors and domestic consumption also increases as they use more electrical devices: fans, air-conditioners, industrial cooling systems, etc, as well as pumping water for plants.A study by the Energy Institute, the Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that when the temperature in summer rises 1 °C, additional electricity charged from 9 am to 4pm increases higher than in other hours by 2. 2%/year, meaning electricity consumption would increase by 1%, especially in domestic, commercial and service sectors. When the temperature increases, the thermal cycle output of steam turbines reduces, which wastes fuel. When the temperature increases 1 °C, coal consumption of a 300 MW coal-fired thermal power plant would increase 0. 5%, equivalent to 4,500 tons/year.For a gas-turbine power plant, when the temperature increase 1 °C, generating capacity will reduce the productivity of a 250 MW gas-turbine by 0. 5%, which loses 7. 5 million kWh annually. Unusual storms and floods and rising sea level would also negatively affect the electricity operation, transmission and distribution systems, oil rigs, oil and gas pipelines to the m ainland, and oil up-loading to storage tanks. Besides, due to unusual heavy storms, reservoirs of hydro-power stations could not effectively regulate water which increase risks to the lowland area.Rains and storms would cause landslides and destroy dykes and hydropower system, which would impact the environment on a large scale. II. 3. Impacts on other economic sectors: Storms, heavy rains and floods which increase in intensity and frequency, would damage and destroy infrastructure and facilities and damage the natural and social environment seriously, sometimes even to the extent where it is unable to recover. Rising sea level would make some beaches disappear, while others would adjust by shifting landward.It would affect cultural and historical sites, natural reserves and eco-tourism sites. Increasing temperature and shorter time of low temperature would reduce the attraction of mountain resorts, while the tourist season at the coast would last longer. (Source: Climate change imp acts on Vietnam). Construction and industrial clusters/zones built in the plains would face higher risks of flooding and difficulties in rainfall drainage as well as flooding caused by rising river and sea levels.Extreme weather conditions and natural disaster increase would reduce the durability of materials, devices, facilities and infrastructure. II. 4. Impacts on society: Climate change has direct and indirect influences on society and the community’s health. Unusual climate manifestation, prolonged cold and hot spells, increasing or reducing temperature have negative influences on people’s health.Climate change also cause epidemics and other sources of diseases to occur and spread more widely such as type A influenza H1N1 virus, type A influenza H5N1 virus, diarrhoea, cholera, and other kinds of tropical diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, Japanese encephalitis, dermatological diseases, sore eyes and poisoning. CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASES THE NUMBER OF DISEASE IN FECTED PEOPLE If  the  global  temperature  increases  from  between 3  –  5 °C,  around  50  to  80  million  people  worldwide will face the risk of getting malaria every year. Source: Report of Action Aid). Official statistics of a WHO survey in 2000 showed that  global  warming  was  the  cause  of  an  additional 155,000  deaths  in  low-income  countries,  due  to  its impact on food productivity and malnutrition, diseases such as diarrhoea, malaria and flood related incidents. 85% of the deaths were under-5 children in low income countries. Source: Asia – Europe conference on â€Å"Sharing experience on responding to global clima te change and emerging diseases, Hanoi, 2009CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASES THE NUMBER OF DISEASE INFECTED PEOPLE If  the  global  temperature  increases  from  between 3  –  5 °C,  around  50  to  80  million  people  worldwide will face the risk of getting malaria every year. (Source: Report of Action Aid). Official statistics of a WHO survey in 2000 showed that  global  warming  was  the  cause  of  an  additional 155,000  deaths  in  low-income  countries,  due  to  its impact on food productivity and malnutrition, diseases such as diarrhoea, malaria and flood related incidents. 85% of the deaths were under-5 children in low income countries.Source: Asia â₠¬â€œÃ‚ Europe conference on â€Å"Sharing experience on responding to global climate change and emerging diseases, Hanoi, 2009 Being aware of the climate change impacts, Vietnam’s Government has joined and ratified the UN Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol. After 2 years of implementation of the National Target Program on Climate Change Response, Vietnam has achieved initial noteworthy results. Ministries, sectors and localities have been preparing their Action Plans to respond to Climate change based on the premise of the National Action Plan.
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